Till such time that a new governance framework comes into being, the progress of reforms in health, education, land, labour, electricity and agriculture could remain fraught with problems, agitations and delays, observes A K Bhattacharya.
The preliminary processing of tax returns is already undertaken with the help of technology. There is now greater scope of using more technology to reduce the human interface even further, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Strengthening the portfolios of the home minister and the finance minister is a message that should not be missed, points out A K Bhattacharya.
But their trajectory and direction have been largely influenced by politics and the political leadership's understanding of how the economy needs to be managed, explains A K Bhattacharya.
Before 2019, an estimated 22 million individual income-tax returns did not have to pay any taxes. But after the change in the exemption level, another 13 million individual tax returns did not require to pay taxes. Thus, of about 58 million returns, as much as 63 per cent or 35 million went out of the direct tax net, A K Bhattacharya points out.
The notion that the BJP gained its increased tally by wiping out the Left parties and the Congress is completely misleading. Equally misleading is the belief that the TMC held its ground in all its existing seats. A little more than a fifth of the seats Mamata Banerjee's party had won in 2016 was lost to the BJP this time.
Any judgement on whether the March numbers reflect sustainable growth in GST collection should ideally await the numbers that will be out in May, points out A K Bhattacharya.
When Nirmala Sitharaman announced her new privatisation policy, there were serious doubts if the move had the BJP's full political backing. All those doubts were dispelled when her initiatives were endorsed by Modi in Parliament, observes A K Bhattacharya.
'The finance ministry's decision to accept the deficit target of 4.5 per cent in 2025-2026 appears to have emanated from its endorsement of the Finance Commission's view that the Indian economy will continue to remain impacted by the pandemic, adversely undermining its growth potential,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
But it is disappointing to note that Sitharaman's third Union Budget continues to promote a few problematic ideas, observes A K Bhattacharya.
Do the actual numbers bear out the claims made by the government or do they suggest something else? asks A K Bhattacharya.
If eight states could join the VAT system much after the rollout date and after seeing how it works, why can't the same apply to states opposed to the farm laws, asks A K Bhattacharya.
If Nirmala Sitharaman does indeed present a 'never-before' like Budget on February 1, going by her promise, she would create a new benchmark for post-contraction Budgets, observes A K Bhattacharya.
'But can it afford to present a scenario within the existing legal framework of fiscal consolidation?', asks A K Bhattacharya.
Can the finance minister manage our expectations, asks A K Bhattacharya.
Clearly, the extra borrowing of Rs 4.2 trillion the government has planned so far will not be enough to meet the shortfall in revenues which could be between Rs 8 trillion and Rs 10 trillion, points out A K Bhattacharya.
IThe fiscal deficit target for 2020-2021 was originally set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. But the government's revenues have collapsed and its expenditure burden will only increase over the Budget estimates.' With the government having already planned for an additional borrowing of over Rs 4 trillion, the fiscal deficit for the current year would be much higher than the Budget estimate, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The oil sector has been quite lucky for the Modi government. It has often provided an opportunity to the government to mend its finances, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'There can be no dispute over the adverse impact such a policy will surely have on India's manufacturing competitiveness,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
The question on who should borrow from the market and whether the borrowing will be under two buckets should be decided by the GST Council, and not by the Centre. If there is no consensus, there has to be a vote, says A K Bhattacharya.
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