If the Centre and states are keen on spending more to meet the COVID-19 challenges in the coming year, they must bear in mind the need to raise more resources through taxes and non-tax revenues, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
The finance minister could well be on her way to setting a record of achieving the biggest single-year reduction in the government's fiscal deficit, explains A K Bhattacharya.
The Centre's retreat from the farm laws is likely to have a significant bearing on the fate of laws that the Centre has made, for instance, in labour and electricity, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
There is no reason for keeping an entire ministry with a total staff strength of 2,300, just for the oversight of a few aviation sector laws and regulatory bodies, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The government must send out a clear signal that leadership positions at regulatory bodies are not a preserve of retired government officials, argues A K Bhattacharya.
This may lead to the states' combined fiscal deficit to widen much faster, while the Centre may show a smaller or insignificant slippage in meeting its deficit target. The Centre will celebrate over its fiscal prudence, but the states would suffer, A K Bhattacharya points out.
Given the many policy areas where the Centre and the states have not been seeing eye to eye in the last few years, it is time the Modi government convenes a meeting of the Inter-State Council, recommends A K Bhattacharya.
But use of that word -- privatisation -- is not encouraged. This seems to be a classic case of reforms through subtle signals, observes A K Bhattacharya.
Till such time that a new governance framework comes into being, the progress of reforms in health, education, land, labour, electricity and agriculture could remain fraught with problems, agitations and delays, observes A K Bhattacharya.
The preliminary processing of tax returns is already undertaken with the help of technology. There is now greater scope of using more technology to reduce the human interface even further, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Strengthening the portfolios of the home minister and the finance minister is a message that should not be missed, points out A K Bhattacharya.
But their trajectory and direction have been largely influenced by politics and the political leadership's understanding of how the economy needs to be managed, explains A K Bhattacharya.
Before 2019, an estimated 22 million individual income-tax returns did not have to pay any taxes. But after the change in the exemption level, another 13 million individual tax returns did not require to pay taxes. Thus, of about 58 million returns, as much as 63 per cent or 35 million went out of the direct tax net, A K Bhattacharya points out.
The notion that the BJP gained its increased tally by wiping out the Left parties and the Congress is completely misleading. Equally misleading is the belief that the TMC held its ground in all its existing seats. A little more than a fifth of the seats Mamata Banerjee's party had won in 2016 was lost to the BJP this time.
Any judgement on whether the March numbers reflect sustainable growth in GST collection should ideally await the numbers that will be out in May, points out A K Bhattacharya.
When Nirmala Sitharaman announced her new privatisation policy, there were serious doubts if the move had the BJP's full political backing. All those doubts were dispelled when her initiatives were endorsed by Modi in Parliament, observes A K Bhattacharya.
'The finance ministry's decision to accept the deficit target of 4.5 per cent in 2025-2026 appears to have emanated from its endorsement of the Finance Commission's view that the Indian economy will continue to remain impacted by the pandemic, adversely undermining its growth potential,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
But it is disappointing to note that Sitharaman's third Union Budget continues to promote a few problematic ideas, observes A K Bhattacharya.
Do the actual numbers bear out the claims made by the government or do they suggest something else? asks A K Bhattacharya.
If eight states could join the VAT system much after the rollout date and after seeing how it works, why can't the same apply to states opposed to the farm laws, asks A K Bhattacharya.
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